Now for the break down. Because of the sheer magnitude of this game, I'm going into lot's of detail and break down matchups.
I'll start with what I believe is the key to this game. The Offensive Line. Utah's O-Line is massive at an average of 6-5 and 316 pounds. The weak link is LT John Cullen. Calling him a weak link is proof of how good this O line is. They have only allowed 3 sacks this season and are creating HUGE holes the past 2 weeks for the double back system. By comparison, The TCU Horned Frogs are almost as good. They have only allowed 5 sacks the whole season. I give the edge to Utah here. I think this is such an important position for this game, because both defenses LOVE to pressure the QB and run blitz.
I'll stay in the trenches for my second thought. The D-line is what changed the game last year for TCU and the year before for Utah. If Jerry Hughes wasn't in the back field disrupting, he was occupying 2 or 3 O-Linemen so guys like Tank Carder could get an extraordinary amount of tackles and even a pick 6. This year, there is no Paul Kruger or Koa Misi for the Utes and no Jerry Hughes for TCU. But both D-lines are filled with super talented, hard working, hard hitting guys. Utah just happens to have more of them rotating in 10-12 guys consistently. So again, the edge goes to Utah here for man power.
Let's get into the "sexy" positions now. Utah has a dual-headed RB system with Matt Asiata and Eddie Wide getting nearly equal carries and yards. Together they are having a good year at 206 attempts and 998 yards. They both do a pretty good job catching out of the back field as well and both are really smart in blitz pick ups. TCU has the "guy" though. Ed Wesley is running rough shod all over everyone right now. He is rushing for 6.8 YPC and has 938 yards on the season so far. They don't throw to him much, but he does great in reading blitzes as well. They also have a "change of pace" back in Matthew Tucker. He has gained 496 Yards this season on just over 100 carries. He's not as big of a threat as Wesley, but still a good back to while Wesley gets a breather. This one is a toss up though I am leaning toward the Horned Frogs even though I LOVE the Utes backfield.
The WR's are another issue all together. Utah has several guys that are "go to" quality. Jereme Brooks is the over the middle, take a hit, make a guy miss and run for the End Zone guy. He has 38 catches for 451 yards. DeVonte Christopher is the deep zone guy who I'm looking forward to watching for the rest of his carrier. He has 26 catches for 499 yards and is coming back this week from injury. Just having him there means a lot to getting the other guys open. The Utes throw to the RB's and TE's alot this year as well but they have 2 underused weapons in Shaky Smithson (13 cathes 234 yards) and Luke Matthews (13 catches for 207 yards). I think they need to find ways to get Shaky the ball. End-a-rounds, reverses, put him in the Asiata package, even try some hook and ladder stuff with him. He is fantastic when he has the ball! TCU is similar in their distribution of the ball, they just run more. They have Jeremy Kerley, Josh Boyce and Bart Johnson who are kind of a 3 headed monster in their spread attack system. Both Kerley and Boyce are burners on the outside and Johnson is the post guy. The 2 are probably better over all receivers than anyone Utah has, however, Utah gets the ball to them more, so edge to Utah.
The QB's are a different story though. Jordan Wynn is a playah! He is a talented gun slinger who will force some things but he usually gets away with it. The Wyoming game is the only exception with 3 picks. Andy Dalton is more of the savvy vet and great game manager. He may be a little more athletic than Wynn as well and has 496 rushing yards to match his 1877 passing yards and 16-5 td to int ratio. Wynns stats are a little different, with him being out for 2 games, he still has 1431 yards, and a 13-6 td-int ratio. The nod here goes to Dalton, and it's a big nod. I'd rather have a game manager with good talent than a gunslinger any day.
In the LB core, Utah has the blue collar, get to work type of guy. I think this is why Utah doesn't get a ton of turn overs this year because they tackle right, and play their positions correctly. It's all about doing your job the best you can, and than doing it again. However, MLB Chaz Walker is leading the team with 61 tackles and is 2nd on the team with 6 tackles for loss. TCU plays a different style defense with the 4-2-5 so their LB's do a lot for them. And they have good one's. Tanner Brock is getting all the hype with his team leading 65 tackles and 4.5 TFL, but I think the best LB I have seen in the MWC in a long time is Tank Carder. His instincts are incredible and hits like a ton of bricks. He has 45 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and a pick. If TCU's D-line can hold onto blocks, these 2 LB's reek havoc on offenses. Even though Utah has 3 to TCU's 2, TCU gets the plus here.
DB's are great this year for the Utes. Again, no super stars, just lots of guys who come to work. The emotional leader has turned out to be CB Lamar Chapman. He's a little guy who has 42 tackles and leads the team in TFL with 9.5 and sacks with 5.5. Coach Kalani Sitake has rarely dialed up a corner blitz before this year. With Chapman's sure tackling and great angles though, how can you not? He goes in on run blitzes just as much as he does pass blitzes. He is an animal. Brandon Burton can cover any one in the country and no one tests his side this year. The safety's might as well get their CDL's with the trucks they hit people with. Brian Blechen has been a surprise this year as a freshman who came into the program a QB, but he has played well and has 2 picks and all his tackles seen to be timely, BIG hits. Justin Taplin-Ross, or Tap Tap, has great instincts and always seems to be around the ball. The 2 safeties are tied for most picks this year with 2 a piece. With the 4-2-5 TCU runs, they play 2 safeties like LB's and it works well, especially with spread offenses. Colin Jones and Tejay Johnson are animals back there. Both are in the top 3 on the team in tackles and have 3 picks between the 2 of them. Jason Teague probably gets tested more than anyone, and does the best with it. With Utah being a little more traditional and TCU being a 4-2-5. I would say that the DB's are a wash because they each have the athletes they need in their systems.
That leaves Special Teams. Joe Phillips is 9-10 on the year and his miss hit the inside of the goal post before it bounced out. He is really good and Sean Sellwood has a great punt average but is not hugely consistent. Nick Marsh handles the kick offs and has 15 touch backs out of 62 kick offs. Not great, but nice. Utah has a great return team this year though with Shaky Smithson leading the way with 126.5 all purpose yards per game. He is leading the country in punt returns 23.33 yards per return. He gives the Utes great field position and he is always a threat when he touches the ball. Evan Ross for TCU is 6-6 on the year, and hasn't had to be clutch at all this year because of their big leads on everyone. I honestly haven't watched enough of their games to say how their punting is (do they even punt?) and the kickoffs are pretty average with 10 touch backs and most of what I've seen landing around the 5. The Kick returns are handled by Jeremy Kerley mostly and he is average at best and punt returns are 13.5 yards per. The kicking game is a wash but Shaky tips the scales BIG for Utah here.
Utah ranks:
Rushing Offense: 27th-191.5 YPG
Passing Offense: 33rd-258.13 YPG
Total Offense: 21st-449.63 YPG
Scoring Offense: 3rd (thank you Shaky)-45.25 PPG
Rushing Defense: 14th (after Air Force)-102.75 YPG
Passing Efficiency Defense: 23rd-112.76
Total Defense: 6th-267.75 YPG
Scoring Defense: 6th-14.13 PPG
TCU ranks:
Rushing Offense: 9th-270.89 YPG
Passing Offense: 60th-214.78 YPG
Total Offense: 11th-485.67 YPG
Scoring Offense: 9th-40.78 PPG
Rushing Defense: 9th-98.33 YPG
Passing Efficiency Defense: 4th-94.53
Total Defense: 1st-217.33 YPG
Scoring Defense: 1st-8.67 PPG
This is going to be a battle of the titans on both sides of the ball. Utah's offense is better and TCU's defense is better. Both sides of the ball are really good for both teams though. It's going to be a low scoring, hard hitting battle much like the Pitt game was. Everything I see though points to TCU. I hate saying this, but TCU is the better team right now. They are even a 4.5 favorite going into Utah, which means they would be a 7.5 favorite in Texas. However, with Utah being so close in athleticism, TCU can be out coached. And I think that may happen here with Rice-Eccles being a crazy atmosphere and Utah always getting up for big games, I.E. Alabama, I am saying Utah by 1. Or TCU by 2. It's even, I can't decide. I can't pick against how good Utah has been, nor can I pick against my pre-season National Champion pick. (I am biased though, so Utah by 1)
I'm not really going to go into any of the other games this week, I don't really care. I will say real quick though, BYU over UNLV by 14 and Utah State over New Mexico State by 10.
1 comment:
Why the heck are you not going to be at the game??
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