It's Basketball Season?

In a way, this may just be one of the most boring sports weekends of the year.  I know, some of you are saying, "but Mr. Sith, what about the great sport of basketball?!"  And I'll agree, basketball is a great sport that I love to watch and get passionate about.  In fact, it's getting into the meat of the season, but we're not there yet.  College basketball is in the part of the season where you might start paying attention, maybe.  

Here's the deal, nobody can argue that football is king.  College football is over with some great bowl games this year (GO UTES!).  The major problem with this time of year, every year, is that the three major sports that are still playing right now (NFL, NBA and NCAA Basketball) are in a down time for their season.  This is the only weekend in the NFL season that there is no football.  In the NBA, everyone is waiting for the All-Star Game.  In fact, all the sports radio, podcast's, blog's and print media can talk about right now is the All-Star Game.  Here locally, it's all about why Deron Williams is not an All-Star yet, and will he be by the time the game comes around.  In NCAA Basketball, you are starting to here the "bubble" (shiver) word.

In this world where football rules all sports, nothing gets any acknowledgement from the majority of fans until the King lays down his scepter for the year.  After the Superbowl, most fans scratch their heads and say "um...now what do I watch?  Who to route for?"  

I admit that I am one of those fans who watch the NBA with an attitude that it's not yet important.  And College Basketball?  How many wins does your favorite team have?  Don't look, just say it.  That's what I thought.  Nobody knows right now, nor do they care.  Next week, you are going to start hearing things like "must win for the Cougars" and "can the Utes pull off the upset and get in the tournament".  

But right now, everyone is calling their booky and putting their hard earned cash on whatever team they think might win, or at least cover the spread in the Superbowl.  On the radio today, I hear things like "can the Arizona Cardinals offense put up enough points against that amazing Pittsburgh Steel Curtain?"  People are asking themselves and others about the 'Cards and if they even stand a chance.  There is a full week before the game.  NBA has 14 games on the schedule this weekend.  NCAA Basketball has a slew of games every weekend.  Still, people are saying "Can Pittsburgh push the 'Cards around like they have everyone else this post season?"  So, to all you basketball fans, you can't yet talk about how the Jazz might not even make the playoffs at the water cooler yet.  Because Jim, the accounts manager in the next cubical, is thinking of how he can convince his wife that the Cardinals are a sure bet and that the hundreds of dollars he bet on them will net him thousands.  Just be patient with him, it will all be over in week.  And for all you live and die with Football guys, the NFL combine is Feb. 18-24 and will be broadcast on the NFL network, so you only have to wait two weeks for a fix.  Than you have to wait until April 25th for the draft.  After that is an even longer wait until the start of the College Football season in September.

Eagles find another way to lose a big game

The Philadelphia Eagles, under Andy Ried, have been to five NFC championship games.  They are an astounding 1-4 in that time.  The one that they did win, they choke away the Superbowl to New England.  I have heard a lot of comparison's to the Buffalo Bills of the 90's, who went to 5 AFC championships in a row.  The Bills however, were 4-1 in that time, although 0-4 in the Superbowl.

If you ask me, I would rather have Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed, Don Beebe, Cornelius Bennett, and Bruce Smith than Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and crew.  McNabb Continues to not impress me by throwing behind wide open receivers, over throwing running back's and a hesitancy to run for yards.  Andy Ried's offense isn't much help, even Arizona runs the ball a little.  When we look back on the career of McNabb, what are we going to see?  I will see the same thing that I see now, an over-rated QB that has never lived up to his potential. 

Jazzed up?

Every once in a while, I go onto sports fan blog sites (much like this one) and read what people are saying.  It amazes me how incredibly stupid some people are.  When I read that Memot Okur is actually hurting the team by being on the floor, I pick up my jaw and chuckle at the moron.  

If you've been reading this, you know where my passion lies, football, mostly college football.  But I enjoy and follow just about all the major sports.  I can't break down film, or things of that nature with basketball, but I believe I know enough to say a few things (or b.s. my way through it).

Let's start with the basics, Point Guard (John Stockton, Magic Johnson) is position number 1, Shooting Guard (Dwane Wade, Reggie Miller) is position number 2, Small Forward (Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant) is position number 3, Power Forward (Karl Malone, is there another?) is position number 4, and Center (Shaq, Wilt Chamberlin) is position number 5.  So, everyone got it?  Good, now we can move on.

Spacing is key to basketball on every level.  It really matters where the 5 is standing when the 1 has the ball.  Let's say that you have two post players on the same team, I.E. Shaq and the Mailman in '03-'04, if Shaq is in the low post and Karl Malone goes within 4 feet of him, he brings an extra defender with him creating a jam in the middle.  That than dissolves the called play and the 1 (Derek Fisher) has to "improvise" and usually passed it to Kobe who shot it no matter who was covering him or who was open.  That is why the Piston's won that series so easily, they disrupted the Lakers spacing.  It's really hard to describe what it should look like with a diagram, but you might get my point.

With the Jazz, I have always screamed for a defensive center.  I have always been a fan of Alonzo Mourning, I used to think he would have been a great fit with the Jazz.  He didn't care about offensive stats, although he was great, he wanted to shut down the other team.  I thought that if you put him next to Malone, it would be a great team.  The problem is spacing.  If Zo was on the '97 or '98 team, the Jazz may have taken the Bulls to seven games, but I doubt it.  I think they would have lost to houston the first year.  Because of spacing.  The great thing with Memo, he has to be defended.  You have to respect his shot, you don't get that with some center's.  Think back when the Jazz had Ostertag, or even Mark Eaton.  There were many plays that started with them standing above the three point line.  Why?  The couldn't hit those shots, in fact, you almost didn't have to defend them.  But it created spacing for the other guys to work.  But now, the Jazz have a "softer" forward in Boozer, so more spacing is needed.  What I mean by softer is he is either unable or unwilling to push another player around.  He chooses to use his skill, which is great, to get around the other big men.  That only works because Memo and Korver are keeping their guys out on the perimeter.  Without Memo, the other team can put both big men underneath and jam up the middle, which everyone tried to do to the "old" Jazz, but karl Malone was to damn good to be stopped by a double team.  He would either split the D and score or make a quick pass outside to a waiting Hornecek.

Also, without spacing, the Jazz's first and secondary plays would not work.  Have you ever tried a pick and roll with a big body underneath?  From when I played, I was usually the big guy in the way.  The Pick and Roll is designed to eliminate one defender, not create traffic.  Also, the double screen, or circle screen, or whatever the Jazz call it (I call it brilliant), could never work if you had both Boozer and Memo underneath.  Could you imagine Kyle Korver running baseline, bumping into Memo, turning toward up toward the foul line, bumping into Booze, running back underneath the basket, bumping into Memo, whose defender is standing there guarding three people, than curling back toward the foul line and again bumping into Boozer?  Jerry Sloan would come unglued!  You would not see those three playing in a Jazz uniform again.  Just ask Gordon Giricek, he didn't like to run that play the right way.  Where is he now anyway, I forget.  

So to make a short story long, Memo creates proper spacing.  It works because the defender has to think about the "money shot".  He is an adequate defender, which is more than what can be said about Boozer, so you don't lose much with him in defending.  At least he boxes out half the time, which is a forgotten skill.  (Also, a really important and under-rated skill, REBOUNDS WIN GAMES!  If you want to here my Dennis Rodman rant, let me know and I'll prove that he was the key to the Bulls victories over the Jazz)

So, in my opinion, keep Memo and Milsap, let Boozer sign elsewhere.

Rant

The College football polls came out today, and was I wrong.  The USA Today poll, which the coaches are "obligated" to vote for the BCS National title winner was as follows;

#1-Florida (60)

#2-USC

#3-Texas

#4-Utah (1)

Ok, so coach Whit bucked the system, but right about what I thought.  Here is what surprised me, the AP top 25 poll (which is the Associated Press Poll) looks like this;

#1-Florida (48)

#2-Utah (16)

#3-USC (1)

#4-Texas

So, I was wrong again, but that would most likely be where I'd put my vote as well.  I could see the Utes playing with anyone and even beating some, if not most of the teams in the top ten.  I see them as even with Texas, and if they played USC 10 times, they would win 4 or 5.  But Florida is, well, Florida.  I would hate to see an Andy Ludwig coached "spread" offense go up against a true, well coached, by someone who wants to coach a spread, spread offense.  I think the Utah defense would do pretty well against Florida, it would be a close game because of it.  The difference is, that Florida's defense would almost laugh at the scheme's that are Utah's offense.  They would think they were in spring ball again.  It's not that I don't think Utah could move the ball, it's that they couldn't do it consistently.  I also don't want to say it has anything to do with Brian Johnson or the rest of the offensive players. 

 Andy Ludwig is not comfortable with the spread option.  That was evident last year when Johnson was hurt.  He started running a more traditional offense.  Ironic as it was, it was the offenses most productive year under Ludwig, not Brian Johnson's, but the offense.  I am looking forward to have a new offensive coordinator in Utah and I wish Andy Ludwig the best in his new job where he can run his offense and hopefully have success.

Urban Meyer

With the game ending with Florida winning, is Urban Meyer not the best coach in football right now?  The man has won more at Florida than the "Ole Ball Coach" Steve Spurrier.  Coach Meyer has been there for four years now.  Good record, Four years, TWO national championships.  I think that says, Good Damn Coach.

National Championship

National Championship, really?  Although I am a die hard Ute fan, I don't think that if I had a vote, that I would vote for Utah.  The reason being is USC, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas all look really good as well.  This is how I see the voting coming down (because the National Championship is a close game, not over yet);

#1-Florida

#2-USC

#3-Texas

#4-Oklahoma

#5-Utah

I don't like it, that's not how I would vote, but that's what is most likely going to happen.  I would put Utah 3rd, maybe even second.  In the A.P. poll, It might be different.  You may just see this;

#1-Florida (34)

#2-USC (23)

#3-Utah (3)

#4-Texas (2)

The (#)'s is how many first place votes the team gets.  I made up the numbers, but you get my point.  The good thing for Utah, and the Mountain West Conference, is that you should see (#) by Utah's name.  Most likely you will see more than one or two, but no more than five.  With the BCS (Even though I hate it) looking at re-modeling the system in two years, if the conference can maintain the success they have had over the last two years (If BYU would freaking win the bowl game), and even add another contender (Boise State), than it would be the Mountain West would be another BCS Conference. 

Next season might be somewhat of a down year for Utah, I mean that by saying they could be going anywhere from 8-4 to 10-2, depends on the QB play.  With that being said, BYU and TCU should be animals next year.  Easily the two best QB's in the MWC, maybe two of the top five returning in the west.  TCU is my pick to win the MWC next year, because I think that QB is the most under rated QB around.  He dominated all the teams they played all year but three.  Two of the three defenses he struggled against were top 10 D's.  The other was the third game of the year against Oklahoma.  So, hopefully, the big three will all show well against each other.  But, as a fan, GO UTES!

GO UTES!!

I was way off!!  I thought, from all my studies, that it would be a defensive showdown.  All my friends (BYU fans) thought I was looking through crimson colored glasses with no basis.  I knew Utah would win, I just thought it would be a defensive showdown.  Eight sacks, a forced fumble, and two picks (I hope Robert Johnson is ok, that looked nasty!).  Alabama had 31 total rushing yards.  31!!!  Holy cow.  I loved Jimmy Johnson's reaction after the game, "They made a believer out of me!"  This is awesome!  Utah should not be ranked any lower than 3rd!  Behind USC at 2 and whoever wins the Florida/OSU game.  I really hope that the nation got a good look at Paul Kruger, he had a great game.  Alabama had to triple team most of the time, which left it open for Stevenson Sylvester to cause havok.  It was an awesome defensive display against an Offensive line that was suppose to be to big and to athletic to handle.  Um, I think it was the other way around.  GO UTES

Maybe not...

After further thought and study, I think the Sugar Bowl might be a little different from what I first thought.  If you read my blog on sithfam.blogspot.com than you saw my prediction of Utah 34 and Alabama 29.  I have think it may be even closer.  It's going to be a defensive battle.  Here is more stats that I have found.  This is out of 119 FBS Division NCAA schools.  

Here are the Offensive stats for both schools.  

Pass Offense: Utah #42, 236.8 yards per game, 26 TD's-9 Int., 67.56 Comp. % and a 149.78 Passer Rating

Alabama #96, 170.7 YPG, 10 TD's-7 Int., 58.22 Comp %, and 125.76 Passer Rating.

Rush Offense: Utah #40, 168.42 YPG, 23 TD's

Alabama #22, 196.46 YPG, 32 TD's

3rd Down %: Utah #26, 45.5 %

Alabama #36, 42.4 %

Total Offense: Utah #31-Alabama #56

Pretty close numbers, 'Bama runs more and Utah passes more and each are more efficient at their prospective strength.  Now here are the Defensive stats... you might want to sit down.

Pass Defense: Utah #37, 191.08 YPG

Alabama #21, 178.08 YPG

Rush Defense: Utah #14, 104.8 YPG

Alabama #4 (yes 4), 78.8 YPG

(Here's the amazing part, both teams faces 3 top 20 rushing teams!!  AMAZING!)

Scoring Defense: Utah #12, 17.3 PPG

Alabama #6, 13 PPG

3rd Down %: Utah #8, 30.3 %

Alabama #3, 27.0 %

Total Defense: Utah #17-Alabama #3

Completely absurd stats.  I think this game might turn into the Boise State-TCU game.  I can't believe the defensive stats.  'Bama is scary, but so is Utah.  Here are some stats that will have an affect on the outcome.

Tackles for loss: Utah #34, 6.33 TFL PG

Alabama #47, 6.0 TFL PG

Sacks (this was surprisingly low): Utah #74, 1.75 PG 

Alabama #62, 1.85 PG

Tackles for loss allowed: Utah #25, 4.83 PG

Alabama #3, 3.77 PG

Sacks allowed: Utah #63, 1.92

Alabama #21, 1.31

Turn Over margin: Utah #16, +.92

Alabama #22, +.62

Penalties: Utah #86, 6.67 PG, 60.5 Yards PG

Alabama #5, 3.85 PG, 34.85 Yards PG

Net Punt Ave: Utah #26, 36.83 Yards, 28 Ret yards, 3.11 Yards per return (Thank you King Louie!)

Alabama #69, 34.63 Yards, 240 Ret yards, 9.23 Yards per return.

Punt Return: Utah #92, 6.53 Yards per return

Alabama #12, 13.08 YPR

Red Zone Offense: Utah #16, 19 Rush TD's-18 Pass TD's-10 Field Goals, 90% 

Alabama #34, 24 RTD's- 4 PTD's-15 FG's, 85%

Red Zone Defense: Utah #14, 9 RTD's-9 PTD's-5 FG's, 74% (out of 31 tries)

Alabama #61, 3 RTD's-8 PTD's-7 FG's, 82% (out of 22 tries)

Time of Possession: Utah #8, 32:38

Alabama #11, 32:11

So, not a big difference between the two.  The biggest that I see is Coach Whit's "bend but not break" philosophy.  Utah gives up more yards, but not many TD's.  The biggest reason why I still think Utah will win is the Special Teams.  King Louie will pin Alabama deep and Utah's punt coverage is amazing anyway.  This will be a field position game and turn over game.  If Utah can keep to form and protect the ball and have great punts, they can and will win.  With NFL quality LT Andre Smith out for the game, that tilts even more to Utah's advantage.  

My new prediction is;

Utah 17-Alabama 13