Monday, May 23, 2011

Utes first Pac-12 season

9/1- Montana St
9-/10- @ USC (Div)
9/17- @ BYU
10/1- Washington
10/8- Arizona State (Div)
10/15- @ Pittsburgh
10/22- @ California
10/29- Oregon State
11/05- @ Arizona (Div)
11/12- UCLA (Div)
11/19- @ Washington State
11/25- Colorado (Div)

So there it is, Utah's first Pac-12 schedule.  I'm going to be a little biased here but also use some reason.  I don't see anything that keeps Utah from being a major contender in the South Division and maybe even going to the Conference Championship game in the first year.  First let me say that Utah is lucky not to have to play the 2 best teams in the conference in Oregon and Stanford, than indulge me as I break down the schedule.

Montana St gives Utah their first win and puts them at 1-0 and let's them not show to much of what they will be doing offensively.  That will play well with them facing their first conference opponent the next week.  I think Utah will be pumped up for it and I think Lane Kiffen is a moron.  A low scoring win for the Utes putting them at 2-0, 1-0 in both the conference and division.  Than Utah hosts Washington, who is coached by Steve Sarkisian, former BYU QB under Norm Chow and also, former USC QB coach under Norm Chow.  This game will also be a close win for Utah, making them 3-0 and 2-0 in the Pac-12.  Than they face the most dynamic passing attack they will face all season in Arizona State.  This game will come down to the pass rush of Utah.  If they can get to the QB, they can keep it close and fight for the win in the 4th quarter, however, if they can't get to the QB, they will get blown out because they don't have the talent at CB to keep the Arizona St. WR's covered to long.  I'm going to say Arizona St. in a close game making Utah 3-1 and 2-1 in conference and 1-1 in the South Division.  The Utes get a slight rest from the Pac-12 schedule here and go to Pittsburgh who will be trying to find themselves under new head coach Todd Graham.  My first instinct here is Utah and move on, however, after thinking about last years meeting, and also how well Utah played against Notre Dame last year, I'm going Pittsburgh in a close, hard hitting battle making the Utes, 3-2.  Utah gets to 4-2 at Cal and wins another at home against the high flying Beavers the next week making them 5-2 and 4-1 in the Pac-12.  Utah goes into Arizona and beats them in another hard hitting match up getting to 6-2 overall, 5-1 in conference and 2-1 in the South division, all the while trying to chase down the Sun Devils.  Then Utah goes to UCLA and puts up 45 points on them, just so Coach Chow can show his distractors what they did in not letting him run his own offense.  Also adding 1 more win in each column, overall, conference and division.  Than they go to Pullman and play the Cougars.  With my affinity for Washington State as well, I'm just going to say it will be a win and leave it at that.  Utah is now 9-2 overall, 7-1 in the Pac-12 and 3-1 in the South Division coming home to face their bitter rival, the Colorado Buffalos.  And, as history shows, Native Americans eat Buffalo meat, (I'm sorry, I had to go there, at least once) Utah wins this one going away making them 10-2 overall, 8-1 in the Pac-12 and 4-1 in the South division.  That puts them in a tie with Arizona St. for the top spot in the division losing the chance to play against Stanford in the Championship game.

Some of the games I think could go the other way, I debated on the Arizona, Pittsburgh, Washington and even USC.  It could be the other way real quick to, this is the Biased Sports Report though and I reserve the right to be a practical homer.  And of course, this is all dependent on Jordan Wynn's play in the new offense, which I think fits him MUCH better than the spread option, which no one thought was ever an option with him back there.  But as is, here is my breakdown of the division.

PAC-12 South Division:
Arizona State: 10-2 overall, 9-1 Pac-12, 4-1 South
Utah: 10-2 overall, 8-2 Pac-12, 4-1 South
Arizona: 7-5 overall, 5-5 Pac-12, 3-2 South
USC: 6-6 overall (Lane Kiffen fired), 4-6 Pac-12, 2-3 South
UCLA: 4-8 overall, 3-7 Pac-12, 1-4 South
Colorado: 3-9 overall, 1-9 Pac-12, 0-5 South

This is all from someone who has not attended any spring games or practices of any team outside of Utah but who followed the Pac-10 as a fan of Washington State over the years and I truly believe Utah is in a sweet spot to surprise people this year.  They don't have to play Stanford or Oregon and they get the toughest Division opponent at home.  USC and UCLA or both going through some tough times and I don't see it getting better this year and Washington isn't quite there yet.  Man, that North division looks to be scary for a while.  My prediction is the Stanford to the Rose Bowl and Oregon to the Fiesta Bowl with only 1 loss.  Mean while, Arizona State and Utah or left out of the BCS but both get to play tough opponents in bowl games and show that the Pac-12 is no longer USC and the rest.